Jordan Roy-Byrne – For A Secular Bull Market In Precious Metals Do We Really Need To See A Bear Market In US Equities?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us review his bigger picture technical and macro outlook for gold, silver, and the precious metals mining stocks, in relation to how they are moving relative to US general equity markets. We spend some time breaking down this intermarket analysis for a secular precious metals bull happening in tandem with a broader market secular bear market is rooted in factual evidence from a number of prior periods.
Next we dive down into the disconnect in valuations he is seeing comparing a number of factors in PM stocks on a fundamental basis, and lately as a result to fund redemption selling. Lastly he addresses the misconceptions and nuances around the often muttered comment that “technical analysis doesn’t work for junior mining stocks.”
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Gold and the long bond moved in lockstep for many years but not after the 40 year bond bull ended a few years ago. Gold held up superbly as the long bond was decimated but they will soon move up together again…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=8&mn=3&dy=0&id=p66950751075&a=1051398411
Gold ………….. I agree…………
Phyz……… nothing wrong with being your own bank…
Gold is prized by long term portfolio managers (like the permanent portfolio or all weather portfolio) precisely because of the lack of correlation with stocks, not because of negative correlation. It allows you to make money on the re-balancing premium with your long term holds.
Secular markets take years to set up and arrive. If you trade the cyclical ones and are in after each time gold makes a proven bottom you’ll be in for when the secular one arrives.
Breadth is mediocre but improving. Until it improves on both the bullish percent and silver cross indices and the price is making a higher high I’ll be sticking to boring dividend producing miners and royalty companies.
A break to a higher high out of this nice round bottom base could be a nice cyclical move. If that carries us into the arrival of the secular bear market, that’s fine too I guess. If not, I’ll cut back to my long term dividend majors/royalty companies, physical and proper re-balancing.
I avoid the juniors unless the majors are first doing well. Funds having forced selling from redemption are definitely going to hit the smaller companies harder.
Open at +2% and now +.01%. Same ol algo.
Hi Matthew…Impact silver is poised to break below into its lower price range from 11/18…Anything going on for this concern?….just asking because I was thinking of getting a position…However, if this inflation pop prior to 2024’s deflation collapse is preventing accumulation that IS understandable…any response welcome…thanks man…
Hi Larry, IPT has already matched its 2018 low while the US listing ISVLF has hit its lowest level since February 2016. Today it even dipped slightly into that massive gap that only exists on the US side.
I don’t see anything that should cause concern other than the inherent uncertainty surrounding the new zinc operation (which I think will prove to be nothing but a good thing). Maybe some simply don’t like the new zinc exposure? My guess is there’s no problem.
With several hours to go today’s volume is already the highest since August while price is 7.5% above Wednesday’s low so sellers aren’t doing much to overwhelm buyers.
Because of this week’s action in silver (which has confirmed gold’s October action) I’m expecting IPT to turn up very soon. If it “must” fill more of that big 2016 gap I bet it will do so quickly in a little spike.
Now it is up just 5% since Wednesday’s low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p33032187686&a=1536137387
ok Matthew i found the gap from late 2016…..the bar after the gap has a low of .1434 and as such, price has not yet closed the prior bars high eg gap bottom….I will study the volumes tonight for any messages…THANKS!
Since today’s low so far is .14 price has dipped .0034 into that big gap. Sometimes simply engaging a gap even slightly can do the trick. We will know soon. You’re obviously right to base your actions on Impact’s chart and not silver’s. My aggressiveness is largely due to my confidence in the company at this valuation and the fact that it has always participated in the upside action that follows an important low for silver which I am convinced we have. Momentum usually tips its hand before price and that’s what’s happened this time.
Impact’s upside is large so there really is no need to be hasty unless one is only interested in short term moves.
IPT the only gold penny dreg I see. And at new lows on very good volume. Another bullish engulfing candle from couple days back.
With the addition of the Plamosas property, IPT is no longer a pure silver play and base metals are not doing so well these days.
I’m bullish zinc and copper and believe that both bottomed last month but Plamosas is so high grade that it will boost IPT’s profits in any market.
Agreed, it’s just going to take a little longer to play out. Probably not happening tomorrow or the next day.
All the silver credits coming out of Plamosas will be like a freebie to the bottom line.
Both daily and even weekly volume are now the highest they’ve been in years while another 52 week low has been reached. I like it. We have capitulation action here and trends typically end with such volume spikes.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52157680411&a=1499122725
Plamosas has huge exploration upside as well.
Ok Matthew..Thank you mucho!!…I will have to wait for a true price and volume reversal….because i am in doubt….My monthly chart of ISVLF shows me the 11/18 low was .15 cent….But below that is a whole lot of air…and so, I must wait for at least a daily swing low to set stop against…That is me…because I know nothing about this company……
Hecla jumped 25% in less than a week. As usual the low was marked by the bearish prognostications of some non-contrarians around here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p98457738108&a=1444684848
The same goes for Coeur which jumped as much as 28% in the last 3 days…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99566107963&a=1411121489
The TSX-V is turning up…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=13&id=p06456130490&a=1385107328
ISVLF…Weekly…This final? ABCD down target is .1111….I will attempt to purchase 100k at .125….that is how I roll…..the gap bottom price is .1035……placed….glta
It’s funny that volume and the move down took off right after I posted that it would probably be quick if it happens. The next 6 months will be nothing like the last 6 months.
weekly isvlf……https://tos.mx/6fa9RA5
Big falling wedge breakout for SILJ…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62032861275&a=1512155157
US treasuries are in for a big countertrend move while gold is in for a massive move that will not be countertrend.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=M&yr=15&mn=3&dy=0&id=t2296055773c&a=1390759457&r=1700123316848&cmd=print